Top secret: Egypt: The January 25 Revolution and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy part1/4

Top secret: Egypt: The January 25 Revolution and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy part1/4

This is an secret study of Egypt January 25 Revolution and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy prepared by one of the most Specialist man in Middle Eastern Affairs he called Jeremy M. Sharp and he did this work for US government before first Clinton's trip to Egypt after Mobarak

Now let's read in this important study to know how US will deal with the new regime in Egypt

Summary

On Friday, February 11, President Hosni Mubarak resigned from the presidency after 29 years in power. For 18 days, a popular peaceful uprising spread across Egypt and ultimately forced Mubarak to cede power to the military. How Egypt transitions to a more democratic system in the months ahead will have major implications for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and for other countries in the region ruled by monarchs and dictators.

This report provides an overview of U.S.-Egyptian relations, Egyptian politics, and U.S. foreign aid to Egypt. U.S. policy toward Egypt has long been framed as an investment in regional stability, built primarily on long-running military cooperation and sustaining the March 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed Egypt’s government as a moderating influence in the Middle East. At the same time, there have been increasing U.S. calls for Egypt to democratize. In recent years, congressional views of U.S.-Egyptian relations have varied. Many lawmakers have viewed Egypt as a stabilizing regional force, but some members have argued for the United States to pressure Egypt’s government to implement political reforms, improve human rights, and take a more active role in reducing Arab-Israeli tensions.

Those concerns, in addition to economic frustration, are now driving the most significant public unrest in Egypt in a generation. The Obama Administration has called on the Egyptian government to respect the basic rights of protestors and has expressed concern about violence, while calling for a meaningful transition toward more democratic governance to begin immediately.

U.S. policy makers are now grappling with complex questions about the future of U.S.-Egypt relations and these debates are likely to influence consideration of appropriations and authorization legislation in the 112th Congress. The United States has provided Egypt with an annual average of $2 billion in economic and military foreign assistance since 1979. In FY2010, the United States provided Egypt with $1.552 billion in total assistance. Congress appropriated

FY2010 aid to Egypt in two separate bills: P.L. 111-117, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010, included $1.292 billion in economic and military assistance; and P.L. 111-32, the Supplemental Appropriations Act, FY2009, contained $260 million in FY2010 military assistance. Under P.L. 111-322, the Obama Administration can provide Egypt aid for FY2011 at FY2010 levels until March 4, 2011, or the passage of superseding FY2011 appropriations legislation. For FY2011, the Obama Administration is seeking $1.552 billion in total assistance, the exact same amount as the previous fiscal year. The Administration’s request includes $1.3 billion in military assistance and $250 million in economic aid. Some Members of Congress are advocating a delay or reversal in U.S. assistance policy, while others have argued that decisions about foreign assistance should be made only once the results of recent events are clear.

Prior to the recent unrest, Egyptian politics were already focused on the possibility of a leadership transition in the near future, and political and economic tensions rose throughout 2010.

In November and December 2010 parliamentary elections, just one Muslim Brotherhood independent won a seat, and the ruling National Democratic Party won over 90% of all seats (as opposed to slightly less than 80% in the last parliament). Some analysts have criticized the Obama Administration for limiting its public criticism of the Egyptian government before and after the election. Others assert that U.S. democracy assistance funding has been largely ineffective and that U.S. assistance should seek to improve the lives of average Egyptians. Some critics of U.S. policy believe that aid should be conditioned on human rights and religious freedom reform.

The January 25 Revolution in Egypt: Latest Developments, U.S. Foreign Policy, and Issues for the 112th Congress

Note: A narrative summary of recent events is presented in chronological order below. For the most recent events, please see: “Friday, February 11, 2011: Mubarak Resigns”

For the first time in the history of the modern Middle East, an Arab ruler has been overthrown by a popular, peaceful revolution that represented a wide swath of society, religiously and socio-economically. How Egypt transitions from 29 years of rule by Hosni Mubarak into something more liberal and democratic may have major implications for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S.-Egyptian relationship has long helped guarantee regional peace in the Middle East, but has now entered a period of profound uncertainty. The U.S. government and the 112th Congress face the prospect of either a more democratic Egyptian government (and what that means for Arab-Israeli peace), a military dictatorship, or an Egyptian government in transition, struggling to balance the primacy of the military with real political reform.

Members of Congress are closely monitoring the situation in Egypt, and some leading figures have called for U.S. assistance to Egypt to be frozen or conditioned pending resolution of the current crisis.1 Other Members have argued that decisions about the future of U.S. assistance should be taken only after recent unrest is resolved. On February 4, a Senate resolution (S.Res. 44) was introduced that echoes President Obama’s calls for restraint by the Egyptian military and calls on “President Mubarak to immediately begin an orderly and peaceful transition to a democratic political system, including the transfer of power to an inclusive interim caretaker government, in coordination with leaders from Egypt’s opposition, civil society, and military, to enact the necessary reforms to hold free, fair, and internationally credible elections this year.”

Lawmakers have an array of concerns with respect to events in Egypt including the following:

The potential implications of an immediate resignation by President Hosni

Mubarak.

The safety and security of American citizens in Egypt and U.S. efforts to evacuate Americans who want to leave Egypt.

The Egyptian government’s respect for human rights and the security forces’ treatment of civilian protestors.

The possible misuse of U.S.-supplied military equipment to the Egyptian army if soldiers should fire upon peaceful demonstrators

The reform of the Egyptian political system into a more democratic space with free and fair elections for president in the fall of 2011.

The role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics. Any new Egyptian government’s respect for Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with

Israel, its commitments to securing the Suez Canal as an international waterway, and plans for military and counterterrorism cooperation with the United States